Demographics 2018



Demographic Analysis and Research International Workshop
           12 - 15 June 2018 Chania, Crete, Greece

Several years ago we have introduced methods for estimating the healthy life years lost (HLYL) from only mortality and population data based on the assumption that the health state information, usually investigated by questionnaires, was also included into the death-population information from the life tables. The advantage of our methods further to avoid the costly and time consuming surveys and data collection provides immediately the results from only the life table data, is more accurate with shorter confidence intervals, while may apply in any period of time as far as life tables are provided.

Thanks to the excellent and systematic work of the Human Mortality Database (HMD) group providing Life Tables for 39 countries, it was possible to construct this Excel Spreadsheet to estimate the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) and the Healthy Life Years Lost (HLYL) based on a theory developed and published in our Monograph (Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods, Springer 2018, ). We use 4 methods based on a direct methodology of estimation from mx and qx and 2 non-linear regression fit methods based on mx and by applying the Gompertz and Weibull equations. The provided HLYL is the average of the 4 estimates (for high infant mortality cases the Gompertz and Weibull methods should be excluded).

By “copy and paste” the Life Tables along with the Population (Px) and Death (Dx) data the HLE and HLYL result immediately for all the time period (0-110 years) along with the confidence intervals. The same results are received by introducing the data from a 0-100 year life table. Life Table Data from 2000+ for the 39 countries of HMD are included in this Excel to test and practice the theory. Download more data from

The results are comparable with the latest estimates for Health Adjusted Life Expectancy (HALE) provided by the World Health Organization (WHO).   


Demographics 2018 Workshop

 12 - 15 June 2018, Chania, Crete, Greece 

Focusing on Population Health State and Mortality Estimates 
Verifying the HALE measurements of the Global Burden of Disease Study via Quantitative Methods Proposed
To register please complete the SMTDA registration form  
The rapid improvements last 60 years in science and especially in medicine, biology and the related fields gave rise to better conditions of life leading to a higher life span. Improvement also came in the way we cope with the nature and the natural phenomena. Demography and demographic analysis and research grow rapidly along with the other scientific fields and especially the quantitative branches of mathematics, statistics and more recently the computing methods and techniques. The new methods and techniques along with the classical qualitative aspects of demography tend to straighten the theoretical approaches and lead to various applications in the same or in other scientific fields including social and economic sciences, insurance and finance thus improving the social welfare of the countries. The research now is more interdisciplinary and the aim of the Workshop on Demographics 2018 is to attract people from the academia and practice thus closing the gap between theory and applications. Presentations expressing the state-of-the art will be organized.

The Workshop is organized under the umbrella of the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis International Society - ASMDA International, and it is aimed to gather people interested in improving demography and the related fields of analysis and research including life and physical sciences as well as medical and technical information. We strongly support interdisciplinary studies and the improvement of the analytic tools and research methods. Both theoretical and practical submissions are accepted.

We also promote special works related to Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) from the HALE measurements of the Global Burden of Disease Study from the World Health Organization (WHO).

We have organized special sessions in the conference and the Demographics Workshop towards the introduction of alternative estimation methods in comparison with the HALE measures.

Even more we include in this web page the files of a simple model (paper, program and applications) providing enough documentation for the Healthy Life Expectancy estimates. Conference participants can use this model for estimating the HLE for various countries and territories and present in the conference.

The results are included in a special publication in the 45 Volume of the Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis . More papers from the previous Demographic Workshops are included in a forthcoming book by Springer.

Information on the history of the estimation of the Health State of a Population is included in a Poster whereas more documentation can be downloaded from a

recent publication.


Abstract and Paper submissions are welcomed by using this website tools.

Please submit your abstract or special session by:

March 30, 2018 (NEW)

After the deadline Abstracts could be sent as late submissions

The deadline for full papers is March 30, 2018

After the deadline Papers can be sent to the secretariat until 1 month after the presentation in the Conference (this is the second stream of submissions to be handled later)


More information at or from the workshop chair:

Christos H Skiadas


Quantitative Methods in Demography

Main Topics

1. Human population and mortality data and databases

2. Models and modeling of human mortality, longevity and life expectancy

3. Gompertz, Gompertz-Makeham, Weibull, Brass, Heligman and Pollard, Lee and Carter
4. Stochastic models, First exit time models of Human mortality
5. Methods and tools for fitting models
6. Nonlinear regression, Nonlinear regression pacquages, Nonlinear regression with Excel
7. Life expectancy limits
8. Life expectancy forecasts
9. Human organism deterioration and application in life expectancy
10. Health state of a population: definition, modeling and estimates
11. The health state function
12. Healthy life expectancy estimates from survey data
13. Healthy life expectancy estimates from death and population data
14. Applications and comparisons of healthy life expectancy estimates
15. Longevity, theory and estimates
16. Human Development Stages Estimates

17. Miscellaneous

18. Other demographic analysis and research topics

The book introduces and applies the stochastic modeling techniques and the first exit time theory in demography through describing the theory related to the health state of a population and the introduced health state function. The book provides the derivation and classification of the human development stages. The data fitting techniques and related programs are also presented. Many new and old terms are explored and quantitatively estimated, especially the health state or “vitality” of a population, the deterioration and related functions, as well as healthy life expectancy. The book provides the appropriate comparative applications and statistics as connecting tools accompanied by the existing literature, and as such it will be a valuable source to demographers, health scientists, statisticians, economists and sociologists.
Please receive more information for this Poster Here

Important Announcement

Selected Papers from SMTDA2018 and Demographics2018 will be included in 2 Special Issues of the Journal Communications in Statistics - Case Studies, Data Analysis and Applications

1) on Statistical methods and Data Analysis and 2) on Demographics

The submission of papers started:
Sent papers to:
Download here the Excel Files of the Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) program to estimate the Life Expectancy, the Loss of Healthy Life Years and the HLE using the Human Mortality Database (HMD) Full Life Tables.

    General Topics
  • Biodemography
  • Environment
  • Human longevity
  • Demographic analysis
  • Demographic economics
  • Education and labour force
  • Linguistic demography
  • Health, mortality and longevity
  • Mortality
  • Mortality models
  • Mortality law and Insurance
  • Fertility
  • Population studies
  • Population geography
  • Population ageing and intergenerational relations
  • Population projection
  • Population reconstruction
  • Population statistics
  • Forecasting, methods and data
  • Replacement migration
  • International migration 
  • Internal migration and urbanization
  • Social surveys
  • General Social Survey
  • National Survey
Life Table Analysis and Life Expectancy Estimates

Special Sessions

Life expectancy
Life expectancy at birth
Modeling life expectancy
Calculating life expectancies
Forecasting life expectancy
Life expectancy variations
Policy uses of life expectancy
Increasing life expectancy
Actuarial Life Tables
Insurance applications

Model Building Sessions
Mortality models
The Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham
The Weibull model
The Strehler and Mildvan general theory of mortality and aging
The Heligman and Pollard model
The Brass model
The Lee and Carter model
Stochastic models
First exit time models
First exit time models and infant mortality
Methods and tools for fitting models
Nonlinear regression
Nonlinear regression pacquages
Nonlinear regression with Excel